As South African grain farmers prepare for the upcoming 2026 summer planting season, soil moisture management is expected to be one of the most critical factors influencing crop production yield. With forecasts indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño conditions later this year, which are typically associated with hotter and drier conditions across many grain-producing regions, experts are urging farmers to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices.
According to Dr Buhlebelive Mndzebele, an agronomist and researcher at the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), the anticipated season presents more than just a typical weather challenge.
“The soil moisture depletion caused by climate change is a serious challenge linked to a likely El Niño season. It is strategic rather than short-term and has implications for crop production stability, input efficiency, and ultimately food security,” he explained.
INCREASED RISK FOR GRAIN FARMERS
If the expected hotter and drier conditions materialise, grain farmers could face delayed planting rains, poor crop establishment, increased moisture stress, reduced yields and higher production costs. Water scarcity, declining soil fertility and shifts in pest and disease pressure may further compound these challenges.
Dr Mndzebele said that “while these risks are significant, farmers can reduce their vulnerability by adopting climate-smart agricultural practices such as using drought-tolerant cultivars, conserving soil moisture, improving irrigation efficiency, practising intercropping, crop rotation and diversifying crops.”
One of the most effective ways to prepare for dry conditions, caused by climate change is by improving soil moisture conservation. Practices such as conservation tillage and leaving crop residues on the soil surface help preserve soil structure, reduce evaporation and improve the soil’s ability to absorb and retain rainfall.
Healthy soils not only store more water but also promote stronger root development, reduce erosion and provide greater yield stability during dry spells. As climate variability continues to increase, these practices are becoming essential components of sustainable grain production.
PREPARING FOR THE SEASON AHEAD
Making informed planting decisions will also be critical during the upcoming planting season. Dr Mndzebele encourages farmers to use seasonal climate forecasts, monitor rainfall patterns and select cultivars suited to local agroecological conditions.
“Understanding regional weather forecasts allows farmers to optimise planting dates, fertiliser applications, irrigation scheduling and pest management, helping to minimise financial risk while improving resource-use efficiency,” he emphasised.
As farmers finalise their plans, Dr Mndzebele advises them to focus on well researched climate-smart agricultural practices such as soil testing, careful fertiliser management and crop diversification. He adds that legume crops such as soybeans, cowpea, groundnuts, pigeon pea are becoming increasingly valuable because they contribute nitrogen through biological nitrogen fixation and also harness phosphorus. These can holistically improve soil fertility when included in crop rotations and intercropping.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming season, he remains optimistic because of the use of climate-smart agricultural practices.
“South African grain farmers are at the forefront of the country’s food security. By staying informed, investing in soil and water conservation, and embracing innovation, they can turn climate challenges into opportunities.”
Farmers seeking reliable information on soil moisture management and climate-smart farming are encouraged to consult the Agricultural Research Council, the Department of Agriculture, agricultural extension officers, weather services, farmer organisations and other trusted agricultural institutions.
